Thank you so much for taking the time to prepare this comprehensive explanation and analysis. It is a long read in a society accustomed to brief social media posts, but this is well worth the time. It is a reminder that statistics can be spun in more ways than one. I recall a statement from many years ago, I believe in satirical “Mad Magazine”, that given enough time, a statistician can convince others that Rhode Island is larger than Texas. This article deserves placement in my files as a reference. Thank you again.
Excellent summary of current data in easily understandable language. It shows a looming recession which cannot be addressed by fiscal stimulus because of our punishing level of national debt. We need to immediately raise taxes. It’s obvious - but it will take wholly different politicians from the ones we are burdened with now.
Wow! John Dickerson, a morning read then after nap. Thought of highly yet, you hit the ceiling in the extensive quasi-power point outline. Sure you’re not running?
1) with insufficient and insufficently knowledgable staff, so that government financial reports are full of guesstimating, why would we believe any numbers they put out? Not to mention the BS factor in the entire administration.
And 2) while many of these numbers sound like we are doing okay, all I know is that I am actually, occasionally shocked to realize how my personal spending has changed over the past couple years and I was already very fiscally conservative. You kind of paddle along and then are suddenly reminded “Gosh, I haven’t bought this or that for years. I have not been able to plan a vacation for years. Even the little fun purchases/’splurges I could make on a whim have disappeared”. There is very little ‘fun’ money, my grocery bags are much emptier for much more money, my supplemental health ins (I’m retired) has increased 50% in 3 years, and I’m just constantly throwing out ballast to keep the boat afloat. It certainly doesn’t feel like there is any reality in the inflation numbers according to our wallets.
The only reason our spending kept everything propped up for part of 2025 wasn’t because we were doing well. We were stockpiling for disaster. I knew that would taper off by the second half.
A favorite business owner downtown owns a consignment clothing shop and recently opened a second shop next door for kids clothing. Logic might tell us that he should be doing well as people have less money to spend, especially with kids' clothing knowing how quickly they outgrow everything. The spaces are too small to combine into one.
He told me yesterday "No one is spending money" and the kids' clothing side is basically dead.
This reminds me of Covid when we had all these lovely new businesses, in a formerly dead downtown, suddenly forced to shut down before they could get their legs under them. I'm afraid we are heading down the same path. In a small-ish, non-wealthy county, it takes a lot of work & pain to make a small business succeed, and very little to pull the rug right out from under them.
Only this time it is all man-made. So the next step from spending less, spending smarter, is not spending at all. That's where much of middle America is and I am right there with them. I used to take pride in helping to support our new businesses but I can barely support myself now.
And yet I see so many vehicles in this same red county with temp tags on them. I can't imagine anyone who is paying attention, and is not 'well off', taking on any unnecessary long term debt right now. It seems foolhardy...IF, that is, they understood what is going on under the surface.
When all this gamesmanship and manipulation of the markets first began, my investment advisor said they had many clients walking in the door wanting to invest more money in "safe investments". Hah! Good luck with that.
Thank you so much for taking the time to prepare this comprehensive explanation and analysis. It is a long read in a society accustomed to brief social media posts, but this is well worth the time. It is a reminder that statistics can be spun in more ways than one. I recall a statement from many years ago, I believe in satirical “Mad Magazine”, that given enough time, a statistician can convince others that Rhode Island is larger than Texas. This article deserves placement in my files as a reference. Thank you again.
Excellent summary of current data in easily understandable language. It shows a looming recession which cannot be addressed by fiscal stimulus because of our punishing level of national debt. We need to immediately raise taxes. It’s obvious - but it will take wholly different politicians from the ones we are burdened with now.
Great information! Thank you for an understandable summary.
Wow! John Dickerson, a morning read then after nap. Thought of highly yet, you hit the ceiling in the extensive quasi-power point outline. Sure you’re not running?
I try to grasp all this but what confuses me is
1) with insufficient and insufficently knowledgable staff, so that government financial reports are full of guesstimating, why would we believe any numbers they put out? Not to mention the BS factor in the entire administration.
And 2) while many of these numbers sound like we are doing okay, all I know is that I am actually, occasionally shocked to realize how my personal spending has changed over the past couple years and I was already very fiscally conservative. You kind of paddle along and then are suddenly reminded “Gosh, I haven’t bought this or that for years. I have not been able to plan a vacation for years. Even the little fun purchases/’splurges I could make on a whim have disappeared”. There is very little ‘fun’ money, my grocery bags are much emptier for much more money, my supplemental health ins (I’m retired) has increased 50% in 3 years, and I’m just constantly throwing out ballast to keep the boat afloat. It certainly doesn’t feel like there is any reality in the inflation numbers according to our wallets.
The only reason our spending kept everything propped up for part of 2025 wasn’t because we were doing well. We were stockpiling for disaster. I knew that would taper off by the second half.
Bessent and Nutlick are such BSers. That or idiots though the two are not mutually exclusive.
A favorite business owner downtown owns a consignment clothing shop and recently opened a second shop next door for kids clothing. Logic might tell us that he should be doing well as people have less money to spend, especially with kids' clothing knowing how quickly they outgrow everything. The spaces are too small to combine into one.
He told me yesterday "No one is spending money" and the kids' clothing side is basically dead.
This reminds me of Covid when we had all these lovely new businesses, in a formerly dead downtown, suddenly forced to shut down before they could get their legs under them. I'm afraid we are heading down the same path. In a small-ish, non-wealthy county, it takes a lot of work & pain to make a small business succeed, and very little to pull the rug right out from under them.
Only this time it is all man-made. So the next step from spending less, spending smarter, is not spending at all. That's where much of middle America is and I am right there with them. I used to take pride in helping to support our new businesses but I can barely support myself now.
And yet I see so many vehicles in this same red county with temp tags on them. I can't imagine anyone who is paying attention, and is not 'well off', taking on any unnecessary long term debt right now. It seems foolhardy...IF, that is, they understood what is going on under the surface.
When all this gamesmanship and manipulation of the markets first began, my investment advisor said they had many clients walking in the door wanting to invest more money in "safe investments". Hah! Good luck with that.
Thank you. Excellent reporting and analysis. Please keep it coming.