This article examines the dynamic relationship between two key U.S. money market interest rates - the federal funds rate and the 3-month Treasury bill rate. Using daily data over the period 1974 to 1999, we find a long-run relationship between these two rates that is remarkably stable across monetary policy regimes of interest rate and monetary aggregate targeting. Employing a non-linear asymmetric vector equilibrium correction model, which is novel in this context, we find that most of the adjustment towards the long-run equilibrium occurs through the federal funds rates. In turn, there is strong evidence for the existence of significant asymmetries and nonlinearities in interest rate dynamics that have implications for the conventional view of interest rate behavior.
January 2009 Archives
This article examines the dynamic relationship between two key U.S. money market interest rates - the federal funds rate and the 3-month Treasury bill rate. Using daily data over the period 1974 to 1999, we find a long-run relationship between these two rates that is remarkably stable across monetary policy regimes of interest rate and monetary aggregate targeting. Employing a non-linear asymmetric vector equilibrium correction model, which is novel in this context, we find that most of the adjustment towards the long-run equilibrium occurs through the federal funds rates. In turn, there is strong evidence for the existence of significant asymmetries and nonlinearities in interest rate dynamics that have implications for the conventional view of interest rate behavior.
My favorite line is one that writers know about too: "Don't play everything (or everytime); Let some things go by. Some music just imagined. What you don't play can be more important than what you do."

via lonelysandwich via mrgan
Times appraisal of Updike
In 2005, Ryne Sandberg was inducted into the baseball Hall of Fame. Heclo cites his speech as an example of how people talk when they are defined by their devotion to an institution:
"I was in awe every time I walked onto the field. That's respect. I was taught you never, ever disrespect your opponents or your teammates or your organization or your manager and never, ever your uniform. You make a great play, act like you've done it before; get a big hit, look for the third base coach and get ready to run the bases."
Sandberg motioned to those inducted before him, "These guys sitting up here did not pave the way for the rest of us so that players could swing for the fences every time up and forget how to move a runner over to third. It's disrespectful to them, to you and to the game of baseball that we all played growing up.
"Respect. A lot of people say this honor validates my career, but I didn't work hard for validation. I didn't play the game right because I saw a reward at the end of the tunnel. I played it right because that's what you're supposed to do, play it right and with respect ... . If this validates anything, it's that guys who taught me the game ... did what they were supposed to do, and I did what I was supposed to do."
UPDATE: I pulled the plug on the experiment you are about to read because I couldn't keep to my promise to just post this novel without re-editing it. I took a peek and after 10 years there are some passages that are just too embarrassing to put out there in the wider world. Some day I'd like to run it through the typewriter one more time but I just don't have the time now to do it for free. If you'd like to know how it turns out email john@johndickerson.com and I'll send you a private copy of the manuscript under certain conditions.
This relic of mine starts here. Let me know what you think.
Chapter
Six
Thursday, as Quinn made his groggy
way to his office he was greeted by a large and grumpy man who rolling away
Quinn's plus-sized computer. Its wires hung out like insults as the cart
clattered by.
"You can just call me if that little
baby doesn't turn on." he laughed pointing to the replacement which sat on
the desk. "These machines I don't know from them or my elbow," he
said, moving his elbow like a chicken.
For some reason this is showing up as markup text so I'm republishing the links to the chapters.
Prelude and Chapter One
Chapters Two and Three
Chapter Four
Chapter Five
Chapter Six
or
UPDATE: I pulled the plug on the experiment you are about to read because I couldn't keep to my promise to just post this novel without re-editing it. I took a peek and after 10 years there are some passages that are just too embarrassing to put out there in the wider world. Some day I'd like to run it through the typewriter one more time but I just don't have the time now to do it for free. If you'd like to know how it turns out email john@johndickerson.com and I'll send you a private copy of the manuscript under certain conditions.
Every newsmagazine writer writes a novel about being a newsmagazine
writer. Calvin Trillin wrote the best one, Floater. It was short and
funny. A gem. In the late 90s I wrote one too. It stayed in my drawer.
I just took it out and I'll keep posting it as long as people keep reading (Keep the feedback coming). It starts here.

Chapter
Five
Writing. Brutal. Lonely. Desperate.
That's what Quinn was up against. He wasn't even the one who would have to
produce the copy that went into the magazine. He just had to write up his thoughts
and interviews for another more senior writer who would craft the final story
using similar files from a handful of other correspondents. Quinn didn't have
to worry about space limitations or getting every word just right. Still, the
process did not come easily.
UPDATE: I pulled the plug on the experiment you are about to read because I couldn't keep to my promise to just post this novel without re-editing it. I took a peek and after 10 years there are some passages that are just too embarrassing to put out there in the wider world. Some day I'd like to run it through the typewriter one more time but I just don't have the time now to do it for free. If you'd like to know how it turns out email john@johndickerson.com and I'll send you a private copy of the manuscript under certain conditions.
Every newsmagazine writer writes a novel about being a newsmagazine writer. Calvin Trillin wrote the best one, Floater. It was short and funny. A gem. In the late 90s I wrote one too. It stayed in my drawer. I just took it out and I'll keep posting it as long as people keep reading (Keep the feedback coming). It starts here.

Chapter
Four
The Wall Street story that was
killing Quinn had been cooked the previous Sunday by Forney Smart on a phone
call with the business editor Jack Kramer.
Jack Kramer had worked at Think for
almost twenty years. Starting in
UPDATE: I pulled the plug on the experiment you are about to read because I couldn't keep to my promise to just post this novel without re-editing it. I took a peek and after 10 years there are some passages that are just too embarrassing to put out there in the wider world. Some day I'd like to run it through the typewriter one more time but I just don't have the time now to do it for free. If you'd like to know how it turns out email john@johndickerson.com and I'll send you a private copy of the manuscript under certain conditions.
Every newsmagazine writer writes a novel about being a newsmagazine
writer. Calvin Trillin wrote the best one, Floater. It was short and
funny. A gem. In the late 90s I wrote one too. It stayed in my drawer.
I just took it out and I'll keep posting it as long as people keep reading. The Prologue and Chapter One can be found here. Below are chapters Two and Three:
Chapter
Two
Quinn Connor had never reported for
a magazine because his first year out of college he had worked for the 24-hour
cable channel TVN (Television News: "It's Your World and We Bring it to You.")
He had wanted to work in print and had a job lined up at the Charlottesville
Daily Progress covering the crime beat. But a month before he was scheduled to
head south, the paper decided crime stories just made people sad.
Every newsmagazine writer writes a novel about being a newsmagazine writer. Calvin Trillin wrote the best one, Floater. It was short and funny. A gem. In the late 90s I wrote one too. It stayed in my drawer. I just took it out. Here's the Prologue and Chapter One, let me know if you want to see more:

Prologue
January
21, 1992-- Quinn couldn't open his apartment door. Eight months in
Not having slept in two days made this suck particularly.
Jumping down on to this highway and then up the other embankment I finally worked my way around to my seats. I cut my hand and bled everywhere, including the white marble floor of the Rayburn House office building, but after nearly four miles of walking and many moments of despair in crowds that were not moving, I was rewarded. Heading into the press section I ran into Bruce Springsteen. I walked up to him and thanked him for his music as they took him to his VIP seats. He mumbled his appreciation.



lunched on the stoop
that oven-hot summer night
whistled me over. Nice
and friendly. So, I stop.
MacDougal or Christopher
Street in chains of light.A summer festival. Or some
saint's. I wasn't too far from
home, but not too bright
for a nigger, and not too dark.
I figured we were all
one, wop, nigger, jew,
besides, this wasn't Central Park.
I'm coming on too strong? You figure
right! They beat this yellow nigger
black and blue.Yeah. During all this, scared
on case one used a knife,
I hung my olive-green, just-bought
sports coat on a fire plug.
I did nothing. They fought
each other, really. Life
gives them a few kcks,
that's all. The spades, the spicks.My face smashed in, my bloddy mug
pouring, my olive-branch jacket saved
from cuts and tears,
I crawled four flights upstairs.
Sprawled in the gutter, I
remember a few watchers waved
loudly, and one kid's mother shouting
like "Jackie" or "Terry,"
"now that's enough!"
It's nothing really.
They don't get enough love.You know they wouldn't kill
you. Just playing rough,
like young Americans will.
Still it taught me somthing
about love. If it's so tough,
forget it.
"When the task of conducting a presidential campaign fell upon him, Roosevelt's background of economic innocence was dappled by only occasional traces of knowledge."
I send out my pieces to a group of people on an email list and worry that I'm bugging them to death and they can't opt-out without worrying about hurting my feelings (Anyone who wants to suggest a web site that allows you to make opt-in/opt-out email lists please let me know).
Merlin Mann makes a very nice effort at informing without being in your face here.
I'm not sure how to strike this balance but for now here are some links to my work for those who are looking. I'll :
Slate
My book
My Google reader feed
Twitter self-pimping line
It's just gorgeous, gorgeous music.
You're right, I do check My Google Alert. This is the kind of thing you're not supposed to admit though right? It's like looking at yourself in the store mirror when you pass by-- a sneaky slightly desperate vanity. For me though, the Google Alert directs me to reactions to my reporting. I learn a lot from blog posts or stories that mention the pieces I've been writing.
(Plus, checking my Google Alerts gives me something to do between checking my Amazon scores, Favrd and calling my friends to ask them if they think I'm clever and worth inviting to parties).
Reader input has been crucial to my work. I get tips, helpful corrections and often a view on an idea or piece that I'd never considered. The notion that readers are our best fact checkers was one of Slate's founding ideas. (Along with the idea that we fess up to our mistakes quickly and in public). During the political campaign I often sent group emails to my most thoughtful readers to get their view of a political development.
But none of this great conversation happens in the public space. The comments I find most useful always come through the email account at the end of my stories (slatepolitics@gmail.com). Public comments just haven't worked for me.There's too much prancing around, rudeness and axe grinding.
I've found the quality of conversation to be far better in private. It contains the key ingredient (for me anyway) of good argumentation and learning which is the desire to meet the other person halfway. Even if a commenter is trying to pull me over to their way of thinking, in the productive conversations I've had, they always start with that general openness and fellow-feeling.There's just not as much questioning of motives and bile.
Cheers
1. Spend 1/4 of the waking day off email.
2. Write at least one sentence in my journal describing the day's events each day.
There are thousands more that I make and re-make each day--including having an answer each day to these five questions-- but these are the resolutions that came to me over the year-end break.








